Duncan    Sep 10, 2013

Strategic Thinking is the ability to think with a purpose. It is the ability to deliberately generate ideas. It is the ability to think about the future and see what does not exist. It is the ability to call those things which be not as through they were. By this ability, battles have been won and kings have ruled and subdued enemies. By this ability great civilizations were built in the past and by the same ability great companies have been built and are being built today. It is through that same ability that you will build the life of your dreams or the business of your dreams.

The first step is to teach you how to think. This may sound absurd as you probably already think a lot. That is where the problem is. For most people, thinking is an unconscious activity. The first part of this course is dedicated to making a deliberate thinker out of you. The quality of your life will be determined by the conscious use of your mind. I am also going to recommend a lot of books for you to read because I believe that the person who does not read has no advantage over the person who cannot read. Abraham Lincoln famously said, ‘things I want to know are in books; my best friend is the man who’ll get me a book I ain’t read.’

Duncan    Sep 10, 2013

A person’s true age is not the numbers on their birth certificate but in the processing power of their minds. To ensure that is turns out to be a truly new year and not a recycling of the old, we must increase the dimensions of our thinking. How far are you thinking? How wide are you thinking and how deep are you thinking? The new year provides us with a unique opportunity to renew and increase the dimensions of our thinking. When this happens then we will have a truly new year.

I wish you a very happy and true new year where you will think deeper, think farther and think wider. A year where by the sheer processing power of your mind, you will be able to convert every condition, every experience and every event that you encounter into a solution that will inspire others.

Duncan    Sep 10, 2013

We made it but what are we going to make out of it? For some of us we have been making it – seeing new years for nearly half a century. While it is wonderful that we made it and we are truly grateful that we made it the most important thing to consider is what we will make out of it. Every New Year is a raw material to build. It is the refresh button of the universe. It is a golden opportunity to say goodbye to the old and to welcome the new. However, what makes the year new as I discussed last week is not the numbers. It is not the calendar. What makes the year new is you. We made it to 2013 but did your mind make it? While everyone will rejoice and celebrate a new year the truth is that some people are still in the nineties in their thinking. I was with some friends of mine celebrating the New Year and I asked them a very candid question. I asked which year they were celebrating. Tragically some people are celebrating 2013 outside but in reality they have just entered the new millennium in their minds.

How then do we ensure that we are truly living a new year and not just another boring cycle of our existence? As mentioned last week we need to get rid of dead weights and I suggested us having a dead weight analysis (DWA). From the feedback I got I believe that many people have done that in the last one week especially with regards to old memories. We need to create new ones. However, there is more to be done.

In the year 2011 there was a celebration of the 200th year of the launch of the master plan of Manhattan Island in New York. Now this is truly amazing. That means that when people were still riding horses people were envisaging and making plans that would be relevant in the era of cars and super highways. Every time I ponder over this I always ask myself the kind of thinking that inspired such. What kind of minds could conceive such?

I also think of the Blackwall tunnel in London which runs under the river Thames. It was officially opened in May 1897. That makes the tunnel 116 years old. Both Manhattan and the Blackwall tunnel are products of minds that were not confined to their time. Now that is sad considering the fact that a lot of minds are just focused on their next pay check. If you wished the designers of both a happy new year they could also ask which one because they were years and years ahead of everyone else. The work of their minds over one hundred years ago is still relevant and cutting edge today.
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Duncan    Sep 10, 2013

Never give in. Be willing to kill failed business ideas, even to shutter big operations you've been in for a long time, but never give up on the idea of building a great company. Be willing to evolve into an entirely different portfolio of activities, even to the point of zero overlap with what you do today, but never give up on the principles that define your culture. Be willing to embrace loss, to endure pain, to temporarily lose freedoms, but never give up faith in your ability to prevail. Be willing to form alliances with former adversaries, to accept necessary compromise, but never—ever—give up on your core values.

The path out of darkness begins with those exasperatingly persistent individuals who are constitutionally incapable of capitulation. It's one thing to suffer a staggering defeat—as will likely happen to every enduring business and social enterprise at some point in its history—and entirely another to give up on the values and aspirations that make the protracted struggle worthwhile. Failure is not so much a physical state as a state of mind; success is falling down—and getting up one more time—withou

Duncan    Sep 10, 2013

I pondered and puzzled and finally settled upon the question: Is America renewing its greatness, or is America dangerously on the cusp of falling from great to good? While I intended the question to be rhetorical (I believe America carries a responsibility to continuously renew itself, and it has met that responsibility throughout its history), the West Point gathering nonetheless erupted into an intense debate. Half of the participants argued that America stands as strong as ever, while the other half contended that America teeters on the edge of decline.

History shows, repeatedly, that the mighty can fall. The Egyptian Old Kingdom, the Chou Dynasty, the Hittite Empire—all fell. Athens fell. Rome fell. Even Britain, which stood a century before as a global superpower, saw its position erode. Is that the U.S.'s fate? Or will America always find a way to meet Lincoln's challenge to be the last best hope of Earth?

At a break, the chief executive of one of America's most successful companies pulled me aside. "I've been thinking about your question in the context of my company all morning," he said. "We've had tremendous success in recent years, and I worry about that. So what I want to know is: How would you know?"

"What do you mean?" I asked.

"When you are at the top of the world, the most powerful nation on Earth, the most successful company in your industry, the best player in your game, your very power and success might cover up the fact that you're already on the path of decline." That question—how would you know?—captured my imagination and became part of the inspiration for this book.

Duncan    Sep 10, 2013

You probably imagine you have a great brand, one that stays ‘top of mind’, signals the right messages to customers and wins you great marketplace loyalty. Well, Messrs Gerzema and Lebar have bad news for you: you probably don’t.

The first problem you face, as the excerpt points out, is the sheer number of brands and advertising messages out there. If 8 out of 10 consumers cannot name even one of top 50 brands launched in a given year, then business leaders have reason to worry. You may be spending a fortune on brand building, but achieving sweet nothing.

So brands are dead? Not at all. The authors point out that some brands are growing in stature every day, commanding great awareness and power. It’s just that the number of really powerful brands is shrinking. Most brands out there are actually withering in terms of performance and value.

This came home to me recently when watching CNN news. I saw a long report in the main news about a global event, simultaneously involving reporters from various cities. What was this event? Why, the launch of the newest version of Apple’s iPhone. The news anchor was coordinating reports from different countries, all counting the queues for the new product and asking customers what they thought of it. And this, remember, was in a week when Iran was at war with itself, when the UK government continued to crumble, and when the worst recession in generations continued to create misery.

Duncan    Sep 10, 2013

Think like a consumer owning a smartphone and/or tablet computer. When was the last time you consulted a printed atlas? You know, that big, heavy book where you have to search for a destination in the index, find the correct page, locate yourself using grid references, and keep turning pages as you travel?

Not recently? I didn’t think so. Once you’ve used a mobile mapping application, one that locates you instantly, places you in the middle of the page, and changes the map to suit you as you move – you’re never going back.

And that is the point. Sure, it’s not easy to figure out how you’re going to make money from the new technologies; and certainly you won’t enjoy your old-world profit margins any more. But staying away is even more dangerous, for you will drift into a place called Irrelevance, which neighbours another place called Bankruptcy…

Do I exaggerate? Ask Kodak. Or various print-only newspapers. Or Borders Books.

That’s why businesses have to think very hard about their brands and products in digital space. And the way to think about is not to try to just work out the return on investment (ROI); you also have to factor in the cost of doing nothing. If your brand isn’t digitally visible, where do you think it will be visible in tomorrow’s world? In print, or on billboards? Really? Look at where most attention is focused today: it’s that glowing little screen in everyone’s hand.

Duncan    Sep 10, 2013

Enter Nassim Nicholas Taleb, professional contrarian and iconoclast, and one of the world’s most entertaining raconteur-authors. Taleb debunks hype and insubstantial argument wherever he finds it, and relies instead on age-old wisdoms. His new book, ‘Antifragile’, is no different. It is a rollicking ride, and will feature on this page again.

Look at today’s excerpt. Taleb is pointing out that many of the essential products we take for granted haven’t changed at all, for millennia, and may never need to change. Your favourite tipple, for example, is very likely produced using the same technology for centuries – and costs you more if it convinces you that it adheres to ancient traditions.

In the book, he points out that sometimes it is the simplest innovations that have the most beneficial impact: putting wheels on suitcases, for example. Why did that take so long to figure out? Perhaps because people were looking for ‘transformations’ when ‘improvements’ were the only thing needed?

Taleb also tells us that if you reread the predictions of ‘futurists’ from a few decades ago, we should all today be wearing synthetic clothes, eating only nutritionally optimized pills and zooming around in flying chairs…but none of that has really happened (except when you take too much of that favourite tipple, perhaps).

Duncan    Sep 10, 2013

Kenya’s economic salvation will not come from its government, no matter how big it becomes. It will not come from its huge corporations, no matter how many bumper profits they declare. It will not come from its mineral resources, no matter how vast their quantities.

Kenya’s economic heroes are not politicians, bureaucrats, technocrats or executives. Its true heroes are right there under our collective nose, hidden in plain sight: our entrepreneurs.

I have written here before: to make ourselves “investor-friendly” is not about hosting delegations of smart-suited foreign magnates in five-star venues. It does not require PowerPoint presentations containing dozens of slides. It isn’t even about large-scale privatisations and billion-shilling deals.

The investments that drive our economy forward and provide livelihoods to millions are right there, all around us. They are made by small businesses, shopkeepers, kiosk-owners, artisans. Those people risk their capital to meet essential needs in society. They take chances. They try new things. They work long hours. They create employment and a tax base.

Duncan    Sep 10, 2013

Our enterprise culture is one of Kenya’s greatest assets. Kenyans have a ‘can-do’ attitude, often overcoming great odds to establish businesses small and large. The rate at which we start businesses and sustain them is the envy of our neighbours. It is the engine that drives economic growth and creates employment, formal and informal.

What’s wrong with that picture? There is indeed a distortion of facts in it. Some of our highest-profile, seemingly most successful businessfolk are not entrepreneurs at all – they are ‘tenderpreneurs.’ And that is an altogether different creature

Duncan    Aug 15, 2013

You want to buy a product for your home. You have spoken to a vendor and agreed a house visit so that installation can be done. You take time off from work to do this. The vendor, however, does not show up. At all. Avoids your calls the rest of that day. Then calls days later to say sorry and give a lame excuse.

You need a service for your organization. You select a provider, pay a deposit, expect a good standard, delivered on time. The provider fails to return your mails, goes incommunicado for a while, misses every original deadline, and misses fresh deadlines too.

You want to buy something. You discover, however, that in order to buy this thing you have to wait in line behind dozens of people; or hang on the phone listening to interminable messages, prompts and annoying music tones.

These things have happened to you, of course they have. In Kenya, they are daily occurrences. But how do you explain this?

• scgtb    Aug 16, 2013

  Hi Duncan,
  
  We see this in the US all the time, but I am surprised to see that you have this problem too. In the US, this seems to result from the takeover of certain market segments by large corporations, who put smaller competitors out of business and then do not have to provide any level of service in order to keep customers because they essentially have a monopoly. Also, many people today buy solely on price, while others buy from big corporations because they perceive them to be more stable than smaller competitors. You can build a successful small company by learning these lessons, and providing that level of service that the big competitors just cannot or will not provide. As people learn that they have a better option, you'll see your business grow consistently. This works even if you cannot sell for the same low price that the larger competitor sells for, but you'll grow much faster if you are able to match their price and provide better service!
  
  Regards,
  
  Mike

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